What does the economy grade measure?

The EconGrader composite score evaluates the U.S. economy across six dimensions: GDP growth, employment (unemployment rate), inflation (price stability), interest rates (Federal Funds Rate and mortgage rates), consumer confidence and spending, and housing construction activity. Each dimension is scored 0-100 and converted to a letter grade (A through F).

How often is the economy grade updated?

The economy grade is recalculated weekly using the latest available data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Individual indicators within each dimension may update at different frequencies (daily, weekly, monthly, or quarterly).

U.S. Economy Grade

Q: How is the U.S. economy doing right now?

The U.S. economy currently receives an overall grade of B (60/100) based on six key dimensions: GDP growth, employment, inflation, interest rates, consumer confidence, and housing activity. This grade is updated weekly using real-time Federal Reserve data.

A real-time composite score grading the economy across six dimensions, updated weekly.

Overall: B

Composite score: 60 out of 100

Based on 6 economic dimensions, weighted equally.

Overall Economy Assessment

The U.S. economy currently receives an overall grade of B with a composite score of 60 out of 100, based on six equally weighted dimensions. Areas of relative strength include housing, jobs, prices, rates, where scores are at or above 70. Areas of concern include consumer, growth, where scores fall below 50. This assessment reflects current data as reported by federal agencies and is not a forecast. Economic conditions can change rapidly, and this grade captures a snapshot in time. Our grading methodology is transparent and reproducible. See /methodology for full details on how each grade is calculated. (Source: FRED, BLS, BEA)

Grade by Dimension

Consumer (Confidence & Spending)

30/100

The Consumer dimension receives a D (score: 30/100) based on a Consumer Sentiment Index reading of 56.6. Low sentiment readings typically correlate with reduced discretionary spending and heightened economic anxiety. (Source: University of Michigan via FRED)

What would change this grade?

The consumer grade is determined by the Consumer Sentiment Index. The current grade of D (score: 30/100) would change based on these thresholds: A (score 90): Sentiment above 90 B (score 70): Sentiment between 75 and 90 C (score 50): Sentiment between 60 and 75 D (score 30): Sentiment between 50 and 60 F (score 15): Sentiment below 50 These thresholds are fixed and applied consistently to all scoring periods. See /methodology for full details.

Growth (GDP)

30/100

The Growth dimension receives a D (score: 30/100) based on real GDP growth of 0.7%. The long-run average for U.S. GDP growth is approximately 2-3% per year. Current growth is below the historical average, which may indicate a slowing economy. (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED)

What would change this grade?

The growth grade is determined by the GDP growth rate. The current grade of D (score: 30/100) would change based on these thresholds: A (score 90): GDP growth above 3% B (score 70): GDP growth between 2% and 3% C (score 50): GDP growth between 1% and 2% D (score 30): GDP growth between 0% and 1% F (score 10): Negative GDP growth (contraction) These thresholds are fixed and applied consistently to all scoring periods. See /methodology for full details.

Housing (Construction & Sales)

70/100

The Housing dimension receives a B (score: 70/100) based on housing starts of 1487K (annualized). Construction is at a moderate, healthy pace. (Source: Census Bureau via FRED)

What would change this grade?

The housing grade is determined by the Housing Starts (thousands, annualized). The current grade of B (score: 70/100) would change based on these thresholds: A (score 85): Starts above 1,500K B (score 70): Starts between 1,200K and 1,500K C (score 50): Starts between 900K and 1,200K D (score 30): Starts between 600K and 900K F (score 15): Starts below 600K These thresholds are fixed and applied consistently to all scoring periods. See /methodology for full details.

Jobs (Employment)

70/100

The Jobs dimension receives a B (score: 70/100) based on an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The historical average unemployment rate is roughly 5.5-6%. Employment conditions are generally favorable, with unemployment near or below historical norms. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

What would change this grade?

The jobs grade is determined by the unemployment rate. The current grade of B (score: 70/100) would change based on these thresholds: A (score 90): Unemployment below 4% B (score 70): Unemployment between 4% and 5% C (score 50): Unemployment between 5% and 6% D (score 30): Unemployment between 6% and 8% F (score 10): Unemployment above 8% These thresholds are fixed and applied consistently to all scoring periods. See /methodology for full details.

Prices (Inflation)

90/100

The Prices dimension receives a A (score: 90/100) based on 10-year inflation expectations of 2.33%. The Federal Reserve targets 2% annual inflation. Current expectations are 0.3 percentage points above the target. Expectations are well-anchored near the target, suggesting market confidence in the Fed's inflation management. (Source: Federal Reserve)

What would change this grade?

The prices grade is determined by the 10-year inflation expectations (distance from 2% target). The current grade of A (score: 90/100) would change based on these thresholds: A (score 90): Within 0.5 percentage points of 2% B (score 70): Within 1.5 percentage points of 2% C (score 50): Within 3 percentage points of 2% D (score 30): Within 5 percentage points of 2% F (score 10): More than 5 percentage points from 2% These thresholds are fixed and applied consistently to all scoring periods. See /methodology for full details.

Rates (Interest Rates)

70/100

The Rates dimension receives a B (score: 70/100) based on a Federal Funds Rate of 3.64%. Rates in this range represent a moderately supportive monetary policy stance. (Source: Federal Reserve)

What would change this grade?

The rates grade is determined by the Federal Funds Rate. The current grade of B (score: 70/100) would change based on these thresholds: A (score 85): Fed Funds Rate below 2% B (score 70): Fed Funds Rate between 2% and 4% C (score 50): Fed Funds Rate between 4% and 6% D (score 30): Fed Funds Rate between 6% and 8% F (score 15): Fed Funds Rate above 8% These thresholds are fixed and applied consistently to all scoring periods. See /methodology for full details.

Methodology

The EconGrader composite score evaluates the U.S. economy across six dimensions: GDP growth, employment, inflation, interest rates, consumer confidence, and housing activity. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on the latest data from the Federal Reserve (FRED). Scores are converted to letter grades: A (80-100), B (60-79), C (40-59), D (20-39), F (0-19). The overall grade is the average of all six dimension scores.

This grading system is designed for educational purposes and provides a simplified view of complex economic conditions. It does not account for all economic factors and should not be used as the sole basis for any financial decision. Our methodology is fully transparent and reproducible.

View full methodology details

Data Sources

Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor: https://www.bls.gov Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce: https://www.bea.gov

Important: EconGrader is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial advisor. Economy grades represent editorial opinion based on publicly available government data and are not investment recommendations. Do not use these grades as the basis for any financial decision. Past economic conditions do not guarantee future results. See our terms of use and methodology for more information.