EconGrader

Methodology

Data Collection

EconGrader pulls data from official government APIs on a daily and weekly schedule. Our primary source is the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, which provides over 800,000 economic data series. We track 30+ key indicators across eight categories: interest rates, inflation, employment, GDP, housing, consumer data, trade, and money supply.

Economy Grading System

The EconGrader composite score evaluates the U.S. economy across six dimensions:

  • Growth (GDP): Based on annualized GDP growth rate. Scores favor growth above 2% (the long-term trend), with higher scores for stronger expansion.
  • Jobs (Employment): Based on the unemployment rate. Lower unemployment scores higher, with thresholds informed by the Congressional Budget Office's estimated natural rate of unemployment.
  • Prices (Inflation): Based on 10-year breakeven inflation expectations. Scores favor readings near the Fed's 2% target, with penalties for deviation in either direction.
  • Rates (Interest Rates): Based on the Federal Funds Rate. Lower rates generally score higher as they indicate more accommodative monetary policy.
  • Consumer (Confidence & Spending): Based on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Higher confidence scores better.
  • Housing (Construction): Based on housing starts. Readings near or above the historical average of 1,200-1,500 thousand score highest.

Scoring Scale

Each dimension receives a score from 0 to 100, converted to a letter grade:

  • A (80-100): Strong economic performance in this dimension
  • B (60-79): Good, generally healthy conditions
  • C (40-59): Fair, with some concerns
  • D (20-39): Weak, significant challenges
  • F (0-19): Poor, severe economic distress

The overall grade is the simple average of all six dimension scores. All dimensions are weighted equally.

Limitations

This grading system is a simplified representation of complex economic conditions. It does not account for all economic factors (such as income inequality, regional variation, or sector-specific performance). The thresholds used are based on historical norms and may not perfectly capture the current economic context. This methodology is designed for educational purposes.

Update Schedule

  • Interest rate and Treasury yield data: updated daily
  • All other FRED indicators: updated daily
  • Economy grades: recalculated weekly
  • Website pages: regenerated hourly (ISR)