10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

Source: FRED (T10YIE) | Frequency: daily | Last updated: April 7, 2026

What This Means for You

At 2.36%, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate suggests that markets expect inflation to average about 2.4% annually over the next decade. If your savings earn less than this rate, your purchasing power may decline over time. For example, at 2.4% annual inflation, $10,000 in savings would lose roughly $236 in purchasing power per year. (Source: Federal Reserve)

10-Year History

Historical Context

Over the past 10 years, the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate has ranged from a low of 0.50% in March 2020 to a high of 2.18% in April 2018, with an average of approximately 1.81%. The current value of 2.36% is near the high end of its 10-year range. (Source: FRED via FRED)

Related Inflation Indicators

The 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate is part of the inflation category. Related indicators include: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (currently 327.5), Core CPI (Excluding Food & Energy) (currently 333.5), Core PCE Price Index (currently 128.4), PCE Price Index (currently 129.0). CPI and PCE both measure price changes but differ in methodology. The Fed targets 2% annual PCE inflation (not CPI) when setting policy. Core measures (excluding food and energy) help reveal underlying inflation trends by removing volatile components. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate shows what bond markets expect inflation to average, providing a forward-looking perspective compared to CPI and PCE which measure past prices. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve)

What to Watch

Economists watch breakeven rates for signs that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored from the Fed's 2% target. A sustained move above 3% or below 1.5% could signal that markets doubt the Fed's ability to maintain price stability. Changes in breakeven rates can influence Fed policy decisions. Historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes. (Source: Federal Reserve)

Limitations of This Data

This data is released daily and reflects conditions as of the most recent reporting period. Economic data is frequently revised as more complete information becomes available; initial releases may differ significantly from final figures. This indicator measures one dimension of the economy and should be considered alongside other data for a more complete picture. (Source: FRED)

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